Tactical Voting in Plurality Elections

How often will elections end in landslides? What is the probability for a head-to-head race? Analyzing ballot results from several large countries rather anomalous and yet unexplained distributions have been observed. We identify tactical voting as the driving ingredient for the anomalies and introduce a model to study its effect on plurality elections, characterized by the relative strength of the feedback from polls and the pairwise interaction between individuals in the society. With this model it becomes possible to explain the polarization of votes between two candidates, understand the small margin of victories frequently observed for different elections, and analyze the polls'' impact in American, Canadian, and Brazilian ballots. Moreover, the model reproduces, quantitatively, the distribution of votes obtained in the Brazilian mayor elections with two, three, and four candidates.     

Characterization of Viticultural Terroirs using a Simple Field Model Based on Soil Depth – II. Validation of the Grape Yield and Berry Quality in the Anjou Vineyard (France)

Soil and climate are major constituents of the French notion of Terroir. This concept implies that there is a strong relationship between the composition of the grape, the characteristics of the wine and the territory of production. To study this link, a new method of characterization of the Terroir, including geological and pedological factors, was investigated. It uses a field model based on depth and clay content of soil, together with the degree of weathering of the parent rock. Consequently, for every type of parent rock belonging to a given geologic stage, there are a series of soils that show different stages of pedological evolution. According to the model, three kinds of soils are distinguished with regards to the weathering intensity of the parent rock, that are named weakly weathered rock (WWR), moderately weathered rock (MWR) and strongly weathered rock (SWR). By hypothesis, each soil type is considered as a homogeneous unit for vine production from the viewpoint of ecophysiological factors. Each terroir unit defined by this method is called a Basic Terroir Unit (BTU). To validate this hypothesis, experimental plots planted with Chenin and Cabernet Franc vines were studied over three consecutive seasons (2000–2002), in the Anjou vineyard (Loire Valley – France). The major BTUs developed on the two most important geological systems of Anjou (Brioverian and Ordovician–Devonian), were studied. Results showed that the berries of vines cultivated in WWR were significantly smaller, richer in sugars and anthocyanins and had a Total Phenolic Index higher than those of the vines cultivated in SWR. They also had a lower titratable acidity. Cabernet Franc vines cultivated in MWR had berries with sugar and anthocyanin contents but also total phenolics very close to those of WWR. With Chenin vines there was a good relationship between the global pool of free aromas of berries and the BTU type. The study showed significant relationships between the quality of grapes and the measured values of several ecophysiological variables such as the water supply regime or the timing of budburst.     

Virtual brain endocast of Antifer (Mammalia: Cervidae), an extinct large cervid from South America

A diverse fossil record of Cervidae (Mammalia) has been documented in the South American Pleistocene, when these animals arrived during the Great American Biotic Interchange. Using computed tomography-scanning techniques, it is possible to access the endocranial morphology of extinct species. Here, we studied the brain endocast of the extinct late Pleistocene cervid Antifer ensenadensis from southern Brazil, one of the largest forms that lived on this continent, using comparative morphology, geometric morphometrics, and encephalization quotients. The analyzed endocasts demonstrate that A. ensenadensis had a gyrencephalic brain, showing a prominent longitudinal sinus (=sagittal superior sinus), which is also observed in the large South American cervid Blastocerus dichotomus. The encephalization quotient is within the variation of extant cervids, suggesting maintenance of the pattern of encephalization from at least the late Pleistocene. Geometric morphometric analysis suggested a clear and linear allometric trend between brain endocast size and shape, and highlights A. ensenadensis as an extreme form within the analyzed cervids regarding brain morphology.     

Wildcat population density in NE Portugal: A regional stronghold for a nationally threatened felid

Population density data on depleted and endangered wildlife species are essential to assure their effective management and, ultimately, conservation. The European wildcat is an elusive and threatened species inhabiting the Iberian Peninsula, with fragmented populations and living in low densities. We fitted spatial capture–recapture models on camera-trap data, to provide the first estimate of wildcat density for Portugal and assess the most influential drivers determining it. The study was implemented in Montesinho Natural Park (NE Portugal), where we identified nine individuals, over a total effort of 3,477 trap-nights. The mean density estimate was 0.032 ± 0.012 wildcat/km², and density tended to increase with distance to humanized areas, often linked to lower human disturbance and domestic cat presence, with forest and herbaceous vegetation cover and with European rabbit abundance. Although, this density estimate is within the range of values estimated for protected areas elsewhere in the Iberian Peninsula, our estimates are low at the European level. When put in context, our results highlight that European wildcats may be living in low population densities across the Iberian Mediterranean biogeographic region. No phenotypic domestic or hybrid cats were detected, suggesting potentially low admixture rates between the two species, although genetic sampling would be required to corroborate this assertion. We provide evidence that Montesinho Natural Park may be a suitable area to host a healthy wildcat population, and thus be an important protected area in this species' conservation context.